For many countries across the world trapped between the gravitational pull of Beijing and Washington, the pressure lies in picking one.
One way leads to accommodation with Beijing - facilitating India’s trade relations, solving border issues , infrastructural aids and a promised stability in the neighbourhood.
The other one leads in relying on Washington - focusing on technology transfer, rule based order in the Indo Pacific region and diplomatic shield.
India’s Dilemma : The Great Power Squeeze
Amid the volatile geopolitical world order and post Cold War dynamics , the emergence of instability and G-2 nations rivalry , India and other middle power countries are under constant pressure to choose either of them .
However, let’s review why choosing any of them will create a burden on India’s Foreign Policy in the long run.
Why Not to Choose US
India has strong reasons to prevent aligning with the United States in today's geopolitical environment.
Here are the key arguments:
- Strategic Autonomy: India's foreign policy has always focused on making decisions based on its own national interests rather than choosing any country’s ideals. The NAM was one such example of it.
- Dependency on Russian Defence Products : Around half of India's major military procurements have Russian origins. An important example to this would be the use of the S-400 missile defence system during the Pahalgam counter terror attack. Unavailability of these products could affect India’s military preparedness and operational readiness.
- Energy Security: Russia has been a major crude oil supplier to India , ensuring our energy security.
- History of U.S. Policy loopholes: The U.S. has been taking abrupt foreign policy stands ever since Trump’s administration, be it Tariff war, sanctions or racist remarks, India cannot prefer to rely excessively on a partner whose strategic commitments can evolve with domestic politics.
- Anchor for the global south : India, as a voice for the global south, must manage its diplomacy with the global south and developing countries , which can be halted by close alignment with the US.
Why Not to Rely on China
The counterargument to ignore Washington is often taken as “Then choose China’’. However, choosing the latter can lead to an even more disastrous risk to India’s diplomacy .
- Risk of Economic Suppression
The Chinese government has a long record of trapping major countries into debt trap to achieve geopolitical and trade goals. China had been using economic retaliation, Informal trade deals since long to achieve unfair objectives.
- Supply Chain Risks
Since Beijing has a monopoly and has huge access to critical raw materials, rare earth elements, lithium, and cobalt , which holds a great importance in today’s digital era, China can use this as a major chokepoint to disrupt supply chain.
- Geopolitical & Border Conflicts with India
Many unresolved and disputed border issues with India including regions along LAC , including Western (Ladakh), Middle ( Himachal, Uttarakhand) and Eastern ( Arunachal) sectors lead to periodic standoffs and military clashes between both the nations , making Beijing an untrustable partner for us.
- Evil Policies Record
China has been known to adopt unfair and evil practices since history to gain hegemonic control , be it initiatives like Belt and Road Initiative, Salami Slicing, making it unworthy to rely on the long term.
India’s Path Ahead
As it is evident from the present context , India had no easy choice to make. To ensure its success in becoming a global superpower, It has to ensure certain aspects -
- Building India’s own resilient supply chain , to prevent its strategic over reliance on other nations and maintaining its sovereignty.
- Diversifying trade partnerships from single country to nations from Europe/east asia/Africa/ global south and collaborating with like -minded nations.
- Expanding Domestic Manufacturing and securing the backbone of “Make In India’’ and gradually shifting from sourcing local to supplying global.
- Strengthening long term economic and technological capabilities, by securing maximum access to rare earth elements, lithium, semiconductor fabs , critical minerals through enhanced spending in R&D leading to reduced geopolitical bottlenecks.
India , should focus on Pragmatic Decoupling , rather than attempting an abrupt stand, which could lead India from its journey of “De-risking to Self- Reliance’’
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